**: China ** newspaper
Author: Wang Shuyan.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 15, in November, the sales of commercial housing in all tiers of cities fell month-on-month, the year-on-year increase in first-tier cities fell, and the year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities slowed down. It is worth mentioning that in the same month, 16 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities newly built commercial housing **month-on-month**, an increase of 6 cities from October, reversing the trend of 5 consecutive months of decline.
Experts said that the recent comprehensive development of real estate policies is gradually reversing the pessimistic expectations of the market and promoting the orderly bottoming out and stabilization of the industry. Looking ahead, there is still room for further optimization of policies at both ends of real estate supply and demand in 2023.
The month-on-month decline narrowed
In November, sales of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings** in first-tier cities fell by 02% and 04%, an average increase of 01 percentage point. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings** in second-tier cities decreased by 02% and 04%, the decline was 01 percentage point. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities** decreased by 03%, a decrease of 01 percentage point. Second-hand residential sales** decreased by 05%, the same decline as the previous month.
On a year-on-year basis, in November, the sales of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities were 2 year-on-year5% and 12%, an increase of 0 from the previous month1 percentage point. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities decreased by 1% year-on-year2%, a decrease of 01 percentage point. Second-hand residential sales** decreased by 3 year-on-year2%, the same decline as the previous month. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities decreased by 3 percent year-on-year9%, the same decline as the previous month; Second-hand residential sales** decreased by 4 year-on-year8%, a decrease of 01 percentage point.
In terms of the number of cities with housing prices or declines, in November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 51 cities with a month-on-month decline in the sales of newly built commercial residential buildings, a decrease of 7 from the previous month; Second-hand residential sales** fell month-on-month in 62 cities, the same number as the previous month. There were 51 and 64 cities with year-on-year declines in the sales of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings**, respectively, and the number was the same as the previous month.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the month-on-month decline in housing prices in November has narrowed, coupled with the increase in the number of new houses in the city, a variety of signs indicate that a series of policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market are gradually showing results.
Policies are expected to be more refined
Recently, the policy has begun to exert full force, both on the supply side and on the demand side.
The 'three arrows' on the supply side will increase financing support for real estate enterprises in an all-round way. If the capital situation improves, the market's expectation of the real estate market improves, and the situation of housing prices** will gradually improve. Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said.
Looking forward to 2023, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Beike Research Institute, believes that corporate financing support policies will accelerate the progress of ensuring the delivery of buildings, and consumers' cautious wait-and-see sentiment on buying new homes is expected to ease, prompting the gradual release of some of the pent-up demand in 2023. At the same time, improving demand support policies such as tax rebates for housing exchanges will also prompt consumers to enter the market in 2023, and it is expected that the real estate transaction market will gradually show a trend of stabilizing volume and price in 2023.
Recently, the "Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)" issued by the Communist Party of China proposed to promote the healthy development of residential consumption. Adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", strengthen the guidance of real estate market expectations, explore new development models, accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel security, and simultaneous rental and purchase, and steadily implement a long-term mechanism for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, support residents' reasonable self-occupation needs, curb investment speculative demand, and stabilize land prices, housing prices, and expectations.
In the process of optimizing real estate policies in the future, the support policies for rigid demand and improved housing demand are expected to be further improved, while the restrictive policies for investment speculative demand may be more refined. Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, said.
At present, the real estate financial policy has been in a relatively loose state, which has a positive effect on stabilizing the real estate market, boosting confidence and resolving risks. Experts believe that it is necessary to start from the demand side at the same time and strengthen policy coordination. At present, market confidence is still insufficient, and there is still the possibility of policy optimization and adjustment.
It is expected that in 2023, there will be room for continued optimization of policies at both ends of supply and demand, and policy efforts are expected to be further increased. The middle finger research institute said.
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